Introduction

Since June 2008, INRIX has published several reports in the groundbreaking INRIX National Traffic Scorecard series analyzing the trends impacting the country’s most congested cities and the worst traffic bottlenecks. Given the wild swings in fuel prices, high unemployment and the severe economic downturn over the past 2 years, traffic and congestion patterns are changing significantly nationally and regionally. Leveraging the nation’s most comprehensive historical traffic data warehouse, INRIX has been monitoring these changes in patterns. This 2009 Annual Report documents the status of traffic congestion in 2009, after several eventful years.

The data tells us that the 30% drop in congestion that began in late 2007 or early 2008 is over. Analysis of 2009 in aggregate shows congestion nationwide is “as good as it gets.” What happens next – will congestion stay at these levels or will we quickly snap back to 2006 and 2007 levels – will largely be shaped by the rate and pace of economic recovery, job growth and any severe fuel price shocks. The severe recession and associated job loss has turned back the clock on congestion to levels likely last seen in 2004 or 2005. What happens in 2010 and beyond to congestion will largely be shaped by the rate and pace of economic recovery, in particular the rate – or lack thereof – of job growth on a regional and national scale.

Key Scorecard Findings

The nation’s Travel Time Tax™ was 8.9% in 2009 (vs. 8.8% in 2008, 13.3% in 2007)
Changes in morning congestion (down) and evening congestion (up) cancelled out
30 minute commutes average 22 hours of annual travel time delay nationwide
Stimulus projects are increasing off-peak congestion, up 25% from 2008
75 of the 100 largest metropolitan areas still have less congestion than in 2006

Forces Driving the Congestion “Reset”

In the short-term, economic activity and the price of fuel are the most important factors driving changes in overall congestion and delays at a national level. The past several years have seen perhaps the most volatile mix of fuel price swings in generations, along with the scariest economic downturn in at least 25 years.

Fuel Prices: After starting 2009 under $2/gallon, fuel prices spent much of the year hovering between $2.30 and $2.70/gallon. Overall, the average fuel price was $2.35/gallon in 2009, 90 cents below the 2008 average of $3.25/gallon. For the first nine months of 2009, fuel prices were $1/gallon lower or more than the same period in 2008. Overall, fuel prices in 2009 resembled prices in 2005.

Jobs: Total employment shrunk by nearly 5 million jobs in 2009. Since the peak in December 2007, over 8.5 million net jobs have been lost. Total employment is back to levels last seen in 2004.

Traffic Volume: Travel on roadways classified as “Urban Interstates” by the Federal Highway Administration – the roads that most closely align with the roads analyzed in the Scorecard – was up slightly in 2009 and essentially equivalent to demand in 2005.

In total, these factors have resulted in turning back the clock on congestion 4 or 5 years – perhaps even further in some regions. A silver lining of the tumultuous past few years is that, for most of us, congestion – while not eradicated – has improved significantly. If you have been fortunate enough to stay employed, your commutes have most likely improved. What happens next in terms of congestion will largely be linked to the fate of total employment in the U.S.

National Congestion Results and Trends

In 2009, the nation’s Travel Time Tax (T³) was 8.85%. Much like a sales tax, T³ can be considered that additional cost of travel above the uncongested conditions. This means that during peak driving times a random traveler on a random trip on the roads analyzed in the 100 largest region’s in the U.S. took an average 8.85% extra time than if there was no congestion. From an individual’s perspective, this translated into a national average 22.1 hours of additional total travel time annually for a one-way commute that takes 30 minutes when uncongested.

2009’s T³ is an increase from 2008’s T³ of 8.83%, but only slightly at 0.2%. The 2009 T³ is still well below 2007 and 2006 levels. Figure ES-4 shows the nation’s annual Travel Time Tax from 2006 to 2009, and shows that 2009’s T³ is 1/3 less than 2007 and 1/5 less than 2006, the first year reported in the Scorecard series.

Although the Nation’s Travel Time Tax is nearly unchanged from 2008, there are several interesting stories within the numbers:

The nation’s monthly T³ was down February through April compared to 2008, and recovered to be higher each month May through October. This trend mirrors economic activity, with the low point of the T³ occurring in March.
Drops in AM T³ were offset by increases in PM T3, implying less trips to and from work were offset by more discretionary trips.
The morning peak period T³ was 7.0%, much less than the evening peak period T3 of 10.7% — nearly all regions of the country mirrored this trend, where the morning commute is significantly lower than the afternoon commute.
The 2009 T³ of 8.85% translates into 22 hours of delays over the course of a year for a typical 30 minute one-way uncongested commute, much less than in 2007, when the T3 of 13.3% translated into 33 hours of average annual delays for the same 30 minute commute.
Wednesday morning and Friday afternoons are still the busiest AM and PM peak periods, though other days are narrowing the gap.
Friday from 5 to 6 pm remained America’s most congested hour of the week, with a T³ of 19%.
Every hour outside of the peak periods saw an increase in T³ signaling an increase in work zone related slowdowns. This data provides a sure sign that stimulus projects are being measured. Overall, there was a 25% increase in off peak congestion in 2009 vs. 2008.

Conclusions

In a November 2008 speech, Jeff Immelt, the CEO of General Electric, stated “this economic crisis doesn’t represent a cycle. It represents a reset. It’s an emotional, social, economic reset.”5 The Scorecard shows that in 2009, congestion – like the economy – stabilized…and reset. It stabilized with the same overall levels of peak period congestion as 2008. But these levels are well below 2006 and 2007 levels. Evaluating a variety of data sources, it is clear that rush hour congestion has reverted back to at least 2005 levels.

Looking forward, the Scorecard leads to several conclusions and identifies issues to watch:

Even resetting to 2005 congestion levels, congestion remains a serious issue. While 11 hours less than the 2007 peak, 22 hours of average annual delay tax for those with 30 minute commutes is still significant. While our “tax” has been cut, most of us are still paying a fair amount of time taxes. Those in certain regions and certain corridors pay far more than average. Turning back the clock to 2005 levels has helped, but congestion is still a serious issue facing the nation, impacting quality of life, economic vitality and the environment.
How much and how fast congestion will increase from 2009 will depend on job growth. The Scorecard series has demonstrated that there is high correlation between economic growth and traffic congestion. With 8.5 million less total jobs at the end of 2009 than just two years prior, those who are employed are sharing the road with far fewer commuters. This is particularly noticeable in the morning commute periods. Last year’s Scorecard showed that a 3% drop in urban travel volumes led to a 30% drop in congestion. If the economy snaps back and job losses turn into job growth, traffic volumes will increase. Ironically, more traffic will signal a healthier economy.
Attacking bottlenecks is critical. The example of the positive effect of adding a second lane on the ramp between I-580 and US 101 in the San Francisco area with nothing more than restriping shows that fixes for bottlenecks don’t always have to be 20-year, multi-billion dollar projects. The Federal Highway Administration has established a focus on bottlenecks.6 This is a program area that Congress, state and local agencies should support and embrace fully. As an example. a significant reason the Seattle area’s Travel Time Tax has dropped in recent years is Washington State DOT’s emphasis on identifying and addressing bottlenecks. Waging war on bottlenecks may be perhaps the most cost-effective and timely method of managing the congestion that is likely to return as jobs do.
Stimulus effects will be felt – and likely grow – in 2010. Data shows that at least 9,000 stimulus project are either ongoing or being started as of the end of January 2010. Compare that to 2,000 projects completed and it is clear that the nation’s roads will almost certainly see a higher number of slowdowns related to stimulus in 2010 than 2009. The 2009 data shows much of the impact occurred in off-peak hours which is preferable as it impacts less road users. Ideally, the 11,000 plus projects when completed will increase system efficiency to deal with the expected, and hoped for, return of traffic demand growth, while continuing to manage work zones to minimize their impact on travel. So far, “the medicine has not been worse than the disease” – hopefully, it will stay that way in 2010 and 2011.
Freight mobility is a national issue. Getting goods to and from West Coast ports, particularly in Southern California, affects all Americans. Getting goods around the south end of Lake Michigan or along the I-35, I-40 and I-80 corridors are critical as well – particularly to those on the East Coast. Our data shows long haul freight uses the nation’s urban and inter-urban highways in equal proportion. Ensuring that the system as a whole – and its key parts – function efficiently and reliably is a clear national interest. As an example, I-40 in Arkansas may be owned, operated and maintained by Arkansas DOT, but it needs to be considered as a national asset – critical national infrastructure.
Policy-makers looking to reduce/contain congestion should not confuse lucky with good. Several national commissions and studies have lamented the lack of and the need for a national vision for the transportation system. The ability to create and coalesce around such a vision has been sorely lacking, seemingly for decades. National policy has devolved primarily to the questions of “will the gas tax get raised,” “does my state/agency get its fair share,” and “can we get our pet projects funded?” National surface transportation bills when enacted every 5 years or so are jobs programs first, investment programs second. Policy-makers should not mistake the improvement in the congestion situation as being anything but a result of the economic downturn. Sure, there are examples of creativity that move the needle regionally (e.g., the I-95 express lanes project in South Florida), but these success stories and initiatives are small relative to the size of our national system. Unless a national vision is developed which includes addressing congestion as a national priority, we need to be prepared for congestion to return along with recovery. The opportunity the “congestion reset” has given us will be lost.